Hindsight bias in the 2012 United States presidential election

Author

Judith Gilbert, Lake Forest College

Periodical Title

Modern Psychological Studies

Volume

19

Number

1

Page Numbers

pages 17-24

Department

Dept. of Psychology

Publisher

University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Place of Publication

Chattanooga (Tenn.)

Date

2013

Abstract

Hindsight bias refers to the tendency for people to increase their confidence in a prediction after they've learned the outcome of an event; this is also known as the knew-it-all-along effect. The present study explored hindsight bias in the context of the 2012 United States presidential election. Participants were asked to predict various election outcomes one week before the election and then were asked to reconstruct those predictions one week after the outcome was known. The study showed strong evidence of hindsight bias and this bias did not depend on political affiliation, gender, or prior knowledge.

Subject

Psychology

Discipline

Psychology

Document Type

article

DCMI Type

Text

Extent

8 leaves

Language

English

Call Number

BF1 .M63 v. 19 no. 1 2013

Rights

http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Recommended Citation

Gilbert, Judith (2013) "Hindsight bias in the 2012 United States presidential election," Modern Psychological Studies: Vol. 19: No. 1, Article 4.
Available at: https://scholar.utc.edu/mps/vol19/iss1/4