Committee Chair

Wang, Xiunan

Committee Member

Belinskiy, Boris; Kong, Lingju; Walters, Terry

Department

Dept. of Mathematics

College

College of Arts and Sciences

Publisher

University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Place of Publication

Chattanooga (Tenn.)

Abstract

Land conversion is occurring worldwide due to a growing population and expanding economy. This process increases the likelihood of pathogen spillover, posing significant economic and public health risks. The objective of this thesis is to model pathogen spillover under the impact of land use change. We develop a zoonotic disease transmission model that describes spillover of Puumala virus from bank voles to humans during land conversion. Our model introduces a land conversion index to capture the dependence of the carrying capacity and the death rate of bank voles on the proportion of converted land. This index is then used to examine how different levels of land conversion influence pathogen spillover. Through simulations, we demonstrate that the risk of pathogen spillover from bank voles to humans is highest at lower levels of land conversion.

Acknowledgments

This work would not have been possible without the guidance of my advisor, Dr. Xiunan Wang. Her mentorship has proven invaluable not only for this thesis, but also for my career as a mathematician. I am deeply grateful to the Department of Mathematics and the Graduate School at UTC for enabling me to continue my studies and for generously funding me during my time at UTC. My sincere thanks go to Dr. Boris Belinskiy, Dr. Lingju Kong, and Dr. Terry Walters for their willingness to serve on my committee and provide valuable feedback for this thesis. None of this would have been possible without the support of my fiancé Marcella. Her confidence in me has helped me to continue even during challenging times. My Dad’s support has been crucial to my academic career. I would not have gotten to where I am now without him. Finally, I would like to thank my entire family for continually supporting me and encouraging me to pursue my dreams.

Degree

M. S.; A thesis submitted to the faculty of the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Science.

Date

8-2025

Subject

Clethrionomys glareolus--Diseases--Climatic factors; Land use--Environmental aspects; Rodents as carriers of disease; Zoonoses--Transmission--Mathematical models

Keyword

Land Use Change; Disease Spillover; Land Conversion; Zoonotic Disease Transmission

Document Type

Masters theses

DCMI Type

Text

Extent

xii, 40 leaves

Language

English

Rights

http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

License

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Date Available

12-1-2025

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Available for download on Monday, December 01, 2025

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