Committee Chair

Wang, Jin

Committee Member

Ma, Ziwei; Gao, Lani; Aniekan, Ebiefung

Department

Dept. of Mathematics

College

College of Arts and Sciences

Publisher

University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Place of Publication

Chattanooga (Tenn.)

Abstract

The concurrent circulation of COVID-19, Influenza (Flu), and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), collectively termed the ”Tripledemic,” poses substantial public health challenges due to their overlapping transmission patterns and compounded healthcare demands. The discovery of COVID-19 vaccines such as Moderna (mRNA-1273, Spikevax) and Johnson & Johnson’s, among other vaccines, has reduced COVID-19 cases but has not completely eradicated the disease. In the 2022-2023 season, the world witnessed a ”tripledemic” of Flu, COVID-19, and RSV. We propose Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) and SusceptibleExposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) mathematical models to estimate transmission rates, compute the basic reproduction number, forecast infections, and analyze seasonal variations and comparative transmission dynamics among the three diseases. Our models are applied to seasonal weekly rate cases reported by the CDC from fifteen sites across the United States. Our results indicate that COVID-19 and RSV will eventually die out. However, influenza is expected to continue to circulate

Acknowledgments

I express my great appreciation to my advisor Professor Jin Wang for his help, guidance, and confidence in me throughout this work. This work was supported by Professor Jin Wang’s grant awarded by the National Institute of Health with the grant title ”Mathematical Modeling and Scientific Computing for Infectious Disease Research.” But for this grant, I would not have been able to do this research. I sincerely appreciate the support from the National Institute of Health. I would like to thank Professor Ziwei Ma for his assistance throughout this work. I also express my profound gratitude to the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga Mathematics Department for their support during these two years. I would like to thank all my committee members, Dr.Lani Gao and Dr. Ebiefung Aniekan, for their time and effort toward achieving this degree. I am thankful to Maame Akua Korsah for helpful suggestions, guidance, and discussions throughout this research. Finally, I would like to thank Deborah Barr, the Math Department administrative specialist, for her love, care, and support. She has been supportive.

Degree

M. S.; A thesis submitted to the faculty of the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Science.

Date

5-2025

Subject

COVID-19 (Disease)--Transmission; Epidemiology--Mathematical models; Influenza--Transmission; Respiratory syncytial virus--Transmission

Keyword

Tripledemic Disease, Mathematical model, COVID-19, RSV and Influenza

Document Type

Masters theses

DCMI Type

Text

Extent

vii, 36 leaves

Language

English

Rights

http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

License

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

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